President Ruto’s Political Chess Game: Aiming for 2027 and Beyond

By Orenge Wycliff

President Ruto’s Political Chess Game: Aiming for 2027 and Beyond

President William Ruto has proven to be a leader of resilience, strategic maneuvering, and political surprises. As the 2027 general elections approach, his ambitions for re-election are becoming increasingly evident. His current moves suggest a well-calculated plan to secure a second term, even if it means reshaping Kenya’s political landscape.

Winning Mt. Kenya in 2022: A Masterstroke

During the 2022 elections, President Ruto left no stone unturned in securing the support of the Mt. Kenya region. His relentless efforts paid off, as the region became the backbone of his victory against Raila Odinga, albeit with a slim margin of approximately 200,000 votes. However, the spirited challenge posed by Odinga, despite lacking Mt. Kenya’s backing, may have been an eye-opener for Ruto. He now understands that while Mt. Kenya remains a crucial voting bloc, it is not the sole determinant of presidential success.

Shifting Focus: Nyanza, Coast, and Western Kenya

Ruto’s fallout with Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has further reshaped his political approach. Gachagua’s insistence on divisive “shareholding” politics led to tensions within the ruling coalition, and Ruto has since sought new allies in regions that have historically supported Raila Odinga—Nyanza, Coast, and Western Kenya. To win over these regions, he has been actively courting Raila Odinga himself.

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One significant move was Ruto’s endorsement of Raila Odinga for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship. Although Odinga did not succeed, this strategy indicated Ruto’s willingness to bring Raila closer to his administration. With the AUC bid behind him, Ruto is now reportedly exploring another major political restructuring: amending the Constitution to create the position of Prime Minister, possibly as an entry point for Raila into government.

The Constitutional Amendment Puzzle

There are growing indications that Ruto’s administration may be preparing to push for constitutional amendments to accommodate Raila Odinga. Prominent allies, such as Nandi Senator Samson Cherargey and other key figures, have hinted at a move to implement recommendations from the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report. Among these recommendations is the potential introduction of a Prime Minister’s position, a role that could be tailor-made for Raila Odinga.

However, amending the Constitution is no simple feat. Several challenges stand in Ruto’s way:

1. Legal and Procedural Hurdles

Any constitutional amendment in Kenya must follow a rigorous process. If the changes touch on fundamental governance structures, they may require a referendum. Given the mixed public perceptions of previous constitutional changes—such as the failed Building Bridges Initiative (BBI)—Ruto would need to navigate this process carefully.

2. Parliamentary Approval

To amend the Constitution without a referendum, Ruto must secure a two-thirds majority in both the National Assembly and the Senate. While he enjoys significant support in Parliament, uniting lawmakers behind a potentially controversial amendment may be a daunting task, especially if opposition leaders and civil society groups push back.

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3. Public Resistance

Kenyans have historically been wary of constitutional amendments perceived to benefit politicians rather than the public. The failure of BBI serves as a reminder that any attempt to alter the Constitution must be framed as a solution to national challenges rather than a political arrangement for power-sharing.

4. Opposition from Political Rivals

If Raila Odinga joins Ruto’s administration, it could disrupt existing opposition dynamics. Figures like Kalonzo Musyoka and other leaders who have positioned themselves as the face of opposition may resist such amendments, fearing political marginalization.

5. Economic Implications

Amending the Constitution to create new government positions could be met with criticism amid Kenya’s economic struggles. Many citizens and advocacy groups may argue that the focus should be on addressing economic issues rather than expanding the executive.

Conclusion: Ruto’s Unwavering Focus

While the road to constitutional amendments is fraught with challenges, one thing is certain—President Ruto does not abandon his targets easily. His track record suggests that he is willing to deploy all available political tools to secure his objectives. Whether or not he will succeed in bringing Raila Odinga into government and reshaping the political landscape ahead of 2027 remains to be seen.

As the days unfold, all eyes will be on Ruto’s next moves. Will he manage to push through constitutional changes, or will the opposition and public resistance derail his plans? One thing is for sure: the political chess game in Kenya is far from over.